Goal 7: School leavers achieve their potential

Overview

Aboriginal learners must be supported to pursue their pathway of choice, whether that be further education, training or formal employment. This means making these opportunities more accessible for Aboriginal young people, as well as ensuring young people feel supported to follow their ambitions.

Measures under Goal 7 have worsened

Fewer Aboriginal 20–64-year-old government-funded VET graduates are employed or in further study. While the completions of VET studies have remained steady in the same year.

Alternatively there are more Aboriginal students commencing university, with Aboriginal access, participation and completion rates of university studies remaining steady.

Goal 7 directly aligns with the following Closing the Gap Outcomes and Targets

Outcome 6: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students reach their full potential through further education pathways.

• Target 6: By 2031, increase the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-34 years who have completed a tertiary qualification (Certificate III and above) to 70 per cent.

Outcome 7: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander youth are engaged in employment or education.

• Target 7: By 2031, increase the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander youth (15-24 years) who are in employment, education or training to 67 per cent.

Closing the Gap - How Victoria is tracking nationally

Outcome 6: In 2021, 47 per cent of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25–34 years had completed non-school qualifications of Certificate III or above across Australia, compared to 58.5 per cent in Victoria. Nationally, based on progress from the baseline (2016), the target shows improvement but is not on track to be met. In Victoria, there has been some improvement since the baseline year.

Outcome 7: In 2021, 58 per cent of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15–24 years were fully engaged in employment, education or training across Australia, compared to 65.5 per cent in Victoria. Nationally, based on progress from the baseline year (2016), the target shows improvement but is not on track to be met. In Victoria, there has been some improvement since the baseline year.

7.1 Increase the proportion of Aboriginal young people in work or further education

Measure 7.1.3 Proportion of 18–24-year-olds participating and completing tertiary education

What does the data say?

VET studies

In 2024 5,727 Aboriginal students enrolled in VET studies in Victoria. Of those, 5,326 were in non-university settings and 401 were in university settings. There were 1,077 completions of these programs in 2024, with 999 being in non-university settings and 78 in university settings. This means that of those enrolled, 18.8 per cent of Aboriginal students in non-university settings completed their VET studies, and 19.5 per cent of Aboriginal students in university settings completed their VET studies.

In 2024, 49.6 per cent of the Victorian 18–24-year-old Aboriginal population enrolled in VET studies in non-university settings, and 3.7 per cent enrolled in university settings.

University study

In 2024, there were 1,265 commencing Aboriginal students in Victorian universities and 3,068 Aboriginal students in total.

Does the data show improvement or decline?

VET studies

There were 12 fewer Aboriginal students enrolled in VET studies in non-university settings and one fewer at university in 2024 than in 2023. Lower Aboriginal enrollment in VET could be because of students choosing other pathways. Completions have also declined in the same period, with 63 fewer students completing VET studies in non-university settings in 2024 than in 2023. In contrast, there were more students completing VET studies at university, with 9 more in 2024 than 2023.

Since 2015, there have been 225 fewer Aboriginal students enrolled in VET studies in non-university settings and 170 more enrolled at university. Completions have also declined in the same time period, with 279 fewer Aboriginal students completing VET studies in non-university settings and 22 more completing VET studies at universities.

In 2024, 18.8 per cent of Aboriginal students enrolled in non-university VET completed their studies. This remained the same as 2023 (18.4 per cent). This is a decline of 3.6 percentage points from 2015, when 22.3 per cent of Aboriginal students enrolled in non-university VET completed their studies .

In 2024, 19.4 per cent of Aboriginal students enrolled in VET at university completed their studies. This was higher than in 2023 (14.8 per cent). However it is a decline of 4.2 percentage points from 2015, when 23.7 per cent of Aboriginal students enrolled in VET in university settings completed their studies.

University study

There were 79 more Aboriginal students commencing at Victorian universities in 2024 than in 2023, and 215 more Aboriginal students at university in total.

Since 2015 there has been a steady increase in the access, participation, and completion rates for Aboriginal university students. In 2024 the Aboriginal access rate was 1.3 per cent, participation rate was 1.2 per cent, and the Aboriginal attainment rate was 1.0 per cent. In 2015 the Aboriginal access rate was 0.9 per cent, participation rate was 0.8 per cent, and the Aboriginal attainment rate was 0.6 per cent

The access rate is the number of commencing Aboriginal students as a proportion of all domestic commencing students. The participation rate is the number of all Aboriginal students as a proportion of all domestic students, and the attainment rate is the number of Aboriginal students receiving award course completions as a proportion of all domestic students’ receiving award course completions.

How does this compare with non-Aboriginal results?

VET studies

In 2024, 29.9 per cent of non-Aboriginal students enrolled in non-university VET completed their studies. Compared to Aboriginal students, non-Aboriginal students were 1.6 times more likely to complete their studies.

VET at university follows a similar pattern, with 27.5 per cent of non-Aboriginal students completing their studies. This means non-Aboriginal students at VET at university are 1.4 times more likely to complete their studies.

Measure 7.1.5 Proportion of 20–64-year-old government-funded and total VET graduates employed and/or in further study after training

What does the data say?

In 2024, 80.1 per cent of total Aboriginal VET graduates were employed and/or in further study after training. For government-funded VET, 82.9 per cent of Aboriginal VET graduates were employed and/or in further study after training.

Does the data show improvement or decline?

The total Aboriginal VET graduates employed and/or in further study decreased by 7.5 percentage points in 2024 compared with 2023. For government-funded VET graduates, there was a 3 percentage point decline.

Since 2020, there has been no substantial change in either the total or the government-funded Aboriginal VET graduates employed and/or in further study.

Declines in the percentage of Aboriginal VET graduates in employment or further study represents worsening results.

How does this compare with non-Aboriginal results?

In 2024, 85.2 per cent of all VET graduates were employed and/or in further study after training. For government-funded VET, 86.3 per cent of all graduates were employed and/or in further study after training.

In the short term, the percentage of VET graduates employed and/or in further study has declined but has grown in the long term. Since 2020, VET graduates employed and/or in further study has increased by 5 percentage points for all VET graduates and 7.2 percentage points for government-funded VET graduates.